Who's betting on “Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?”?
Geopolitics · $329K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 60¢ and No at 40¢, a 60% implied chance of Yes. $329K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
95% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 31 points. A week ago, Yes by 31 points.
135 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 135 of them. The largest Yes holder is buoys, with $2.0K on it, $83K lifetime profit over 1,183 markets (46% won). The largest No holder is crypto-basenji, with $336 on it, $8.2K lifetime profit over 339 markets (47% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $8 on No.
- Smart money share
- 95%
- Holders
- 75
- Money on it
- $9.0K
- Holders' winrate
- 55%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 63%
- Holders
- 60
- Money on it
- $1.9K
- Holders' winrate
- 51%
- Snipers
- 1 · $8
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| buoyswhale | $2.0K | +$83K | 46% of 1,183 |
| katbotwhale | $1.6K | +$2.6K | 49% of 187 |
| paddaawhale | $1.5K | +$279K | 58% of 1,425 |
| RememberAmalekwhale | $791 | +$837K | 73% of 1,102 |
| l39sm34812391js831balanced | $682 | +$2.2K | 75% of 20 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| crypto-basenjiwhale | $336 | +$8.2K | 47% of 339 |
| filthymudeok | $230 | -$4.4K | 31% of 209 |
| Mikelaawreynoise | $180 | +$64K | 36% of 218 |
| frozenriverwhale | $163 | +$227K | 78% of 244 |
| GidGud | $159 | -$22K | 25% of 660 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
- 14$154K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 15+$131K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 9$124K vol.Yes 32%No 68%Smart money: Yes
- 13$104K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 12$50K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 10$33K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: Yes
- 11$31K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Who's betting on How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?"?
135 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 135 of them. The largest Yes holder is buoys, with $2.0K on it, $83K lifetime profit over 1,183 markets (46% won). The largest No holder is crypto-basenji, with $336 on it, $8.2K lifetime profit over 339 markets (47% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 60¢ and No at 40¢, a 60% implied chance of Yes. $329K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
95% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 31 points. A week ago, Yes by 31 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.