Who's betting on “Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?”?
Geopolitics · $124K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 32¢ and No at 68¢, a 68% implied chance of No. $124K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
90% of the money on Yes and 75% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 15 points. A week ago, Yes by 12 points.
95 wallets hold a position worth $5.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 95 of them. The largest Yes holder is avon5, with $591 on it, $2.1K lifetime profit over 203 markets (63% won). The largest No holder is siick, with $571 on it, $95K lifetime profit over 1,030 markets (69% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $2 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 90%
- Holders
- 59
- Money on it
- $3.8K
- Holders' winrate
- 54%
- Snipers
- 1 · $2
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 75%
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $1.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| avon5balanced | $591 | +$2.1K | 63% of 203 |
| 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495noise | $503 | +$318K | 22% of 11,530 |
| RememberAmalekwhale | $414 | +$837K | 73% of 1,102 |
| Tenebrus7whale | $369 | +$155K | 66% of 1,516 |
| paddaawhale | $356 | +$283K | 58% of 1,436 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| siickwhale | $571 | +$95K | 69% of 1,030 |
| Cassiopeian | $184 | -$102K | 67% of 94 |
| frozenriverwhale | $89 | +$227K | 78% of 244 |
| chouzh | $68 | +$6.2K | 60% of 10 |
| apples-325 | $48 | +$860 | 30% of 10 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
- 8$329K vol.Yes 60%No 40%Smart money: Yes
- 14$154K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 15+$131K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 13$104K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 12$50K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 10$33K vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: Yes
- 11$31K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Who's betting on How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026? →
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.1M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 97%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.4M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: Yes
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: No
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?"?
95 wallets hold a position worth $5.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 95 of them. The largest Yes holder is avon5, with $591 on it, $2.1K lifetime profit over 203 markets (63% won). The largest No holder is siick, with $571 on it, $95K lifetime profit over 1,030 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 32¢ and No at 68¢, a 68% implied chance of No. $124K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
90% of the money on Yes and 75% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 15 points. A week ago, Yes by 12 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.