Who's betting on “Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?”?
Geopolitics · $50K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 25, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $50K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
84% of the money on Yes and 100% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 15 points. A week ago, No by 17 points.
70 wallets hold a position worth $387 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 70 of them. The largest Yes holder is Gr4pefruit7000, with $10 on it, $44K lifetime profit over 419 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is joh454h, with $94 on it, $6 lifetime profit over 12 markets (100% won).
- Smart money share
- 84%
- Holders
- 58
- Money on it
- $97
- Holders' winrate
- 57%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 100%
- Holders
- 12
- Money on it
- $289
- Holders' winrate
- 84%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gr4pefruit7000whale | $10 | +$44K | 56% of 419 |
| paddaawhale | $8 | +$283K | 58% of 1,436 |
| planktonXDwhale | $8 | +$131K | 76% of 5,427 |
| nufonehudis67whale | $7 | +$14K | 54% of 227 |
| Mikelaawreynoise | $6 | +$64K | 36% of 218 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| joh454h | $94 | +$6 | 100% of 12 |
| elmawsq2 | $79 | +$4 | 92% of 13 |
| Oblonsky | $50 | +$31 | 65% of 46 |
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $28 | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,943 |
| ProteinPoacherwhale | $16 | +$13K | 55% of 203 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
- 8$329K vol.Yes 60%No 40%Smart money: Yes
- 14$154K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 15+$131K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 9$124K vol.Yes 31%No 69%Smart money: Yes
- 13$104K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 10$33K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: Yes
- 11$31K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Who's betting on How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?"?
70 wallets hold a position worth $387 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 70 of them. The largest Yes holder is Gr4pefruit7000, with $10 on it, $44K lifetime profit over 419 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is joh454h, with $94 on it, $6 lifetime profit over 12 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $50K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
84% of the money on Yes and 100% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 15 points. A week ago, No by 17 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.