Who's betting on “Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?”?
Geopolitics · $31K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 25, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $31K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
87% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
86 wallets hold a position worth $355 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 86 of them. The largest Yes holder is Mikelaawrey, with $13 on it, $64K lifetime profit over 218 markets (36% won). The largest No holder is 32rsisgursa, with $99 on it, $11 lifetime profit over 14 markets (100% won).
- Smart money share
- 87%
- Holders
- 73
- Money on it
- $117
- Holders' winrate
- 52%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 99%
- Holders
- 13
- Money on it
- $238
- Holders' winrate
- 88%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mikelaawreynoise | $13 | +$64K | 36% of 218 |
| ACarawhale | $12 | +$45K | 65% of 360 |
| nufonehudis67whale | $11 | +$14K | 54% of 227 |
| paddaawhale | $10 | +$285K | 58% of 1,441 |
| 2B9Snoise | $8 | +$97K | 27% of 13,123 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32rsisgursa | $99 | +$11 | 100% of 14 |
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $52 | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,947 |
| tailorewrf | $49 | +$4 | 93% of 14 |
| frozenriverwhale | $24 | +$227K | 78% of 244 |
| hspje89grinder | $5 | +$4 | 100% of 244 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
- 8$329K vol.Yes 60%No 40%Smart money: Yes
- 14$154K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 15+$131K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 9$124K vol.Yes 31%No 69%Smart money: Yes
- 13$104K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 12$50K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 10$33K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026? →
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
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- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
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- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: No
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?"?
86 wallets hold a position worth $355 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 86 of them. The largest Yes holder is Mikelaawrey, with $13 on it, $64K lifetime profit over 218 markets (36% won). The largest No holder is 32rsisgursa, with $99 on it, $11 lifetime profit over 14 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $31K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
87% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.