Who's betting on “Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?”?
Geopolitics · $341K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $341K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
74% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
854 wallets hold a position worth $38K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 853 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xD512f1092543dbA882AA2c594127118A720079B3-1768846424397, with $771 on it, $2.9K lifetime profit over 73 markets (74% won). The largest No holder is pakukudolphi, with $18K on it, $137K lifetime profit over 312 markets (46% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $7 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 74%
- Holders
- 441
- Money on it
- $2.9K
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 1 · $7
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 86% ▲ 9 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 413
- Money on it
- $35K
- Holders' winrate
- 55%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xD512f1092543dbA882AA2c594127118A720079B3-1768846424397whale | $771 | +$2.9K | 74% of 73 |
| marinerhazbalanced | $257 | +$1.7K | 50% of 131 |
| 0x49F206 | $182 | -$42K | 61% of 718 |
| wigglewwhale | $151 | +$16K | 68% of 635 |
| 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA9604whale | $137 | +$125K | 61% of 202 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| pakukudolphiwhale | $18K | +$137K | 46% of 312 |
| LJa7io23MCv954jwhale | $3.2K | +$3.3K | 88% of 131 |
| M2sx92kljs42whale | $2.5K | +$63K | 78% of 514 |
| growfood | $1.1K | -$753 | 43% of 200 |
| GollumGekkowhale | $762 | +$281K | 73% of 1,157 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
Other big geopolitics markets
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- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 97%Smart money: No
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- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 100%No 0%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: No
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?"?
854 wallets hold a position worth $38K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 853 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xD512f1092543dbA882AA2c594127118A720079B3-1768846424397, with $771 on it, $2.9K lifetime profit over 73 markets (74% won). The largest No holder is pakukudolphi, with $18K on it, $137K lifetime profit over 312 markets (46% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $341K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
74% of the money on Yes and 86% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.