polkyo

Who's betting on “Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?”?

Politics · $5.3M volume · Ends April 19, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $5.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 19, 2027.

97% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 7 points. A week ago, Yes by 8 points.

206 wallets hold a position worth $2.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 206 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50A, with $283 on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 972 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $934 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).

Yes0%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
97%
Holders
140
Money on it
$636
Holders' winrate
49%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0
No100%
Smart money share
90%
Holders
66
Money on it
$1.8K
Holders' winrate
62%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50Awhale$283+$1.2M57% of 972
milchi03noise$159+$3444% of 213
alwayslatetothepartynoise$54+$224K22% of 255
JustCrazywhale$26+$32K47% of 264
0x998B3AD9Fc8219F4A9EF374196fFbb690832Db96-1776201383464whale$15+$1.0K51% of 245
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
Elias.Thornwellwhale$934+$4.5K69% of 2,940
MustafaIskandernoise$612+$353% of 40
AmartheF$60-$259% of 56
chainchainchain$50-$7051% of 72
0x4Be6d3628b5393532189AD614D38AA996Bb877cc-1733943376122$16-$4697% of 88
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

Open the full signal →Start free

More markets in Next French Presidential Election

Who's betting on Next French Presidential Election →

Other big politics markets

Every big politics market →

Questions

Who is betting on "Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?"?

206 wallets hold a position worth $2.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 206 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50A, with $283 on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 972 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $934 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $5.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 19, 2027.

Which side is the smart money on?

97% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 7 points. A week ago, Yes by 8 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on April 19, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo