Who's betting on “Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?”?
Politics · $3.2M volume · Ends April 19, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $3.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 19, 2027.
55% of the money on Yes and 57% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 18 points. A week ago, Yes by 18 points.
819 wallets hold a position worth $25K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 817 of them. The largest Yes holder is BurstedBubble, with $4.1K on it, $45K lifetime loss over 2 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is ivanx4k, with $1.5K on it, $2.0K lifetime profit over 282 markets (57% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $85 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 55% ▼ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 322
- Money on it
- $19K
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 1 · $85
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 57% ▲ 18 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 497
- Money on it
- $5.5K
- Holders' winrate
- 55%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| BurstedBubble | $4.1K | -$45K | 100% of 2 |
| LiquidatedDegenwhale | $2.1K | +$93K | 74% of 1,127 |
| resuildde | $1.8K | +$5.2K | 67% of 3 |
| 0xEb407feb44f3eC50C190B7f3CC9F91507b14174B-1787403049083 | $781 | +$1.1K | 0% of 1 |
| john-difool | $750 | -$822 | 74% of 116 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| ivanx4kwhale | $1.5K | +$2.0K | 57% of 282 |
| goewab | $836 | -$91 | 47% of 17 |
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $684 | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,940 |
| 4543treggt | $230 | -$50 | 47% of 15 |
| Lily7333 | $190 | -$88 | 25% of 48 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Next French Presidential Election
- Ségolène Royal$7.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Olivier Faure$6.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Mathilde Panot$6.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- François Asselineau$6.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Xavier Bertrand$6.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- François Bayrou$5.9M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Yaël Braun-Pivet$5.8M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Élisabeth Borne$5.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- David Lisnard$5.3M vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money: No
- Michel Barnier$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Manuel Bompard$5.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Clémentine Autain$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan$4.9M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- François Ruffin$4.8M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Carole Delga$4.7M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Marine Tondelier$4.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Marine Le Pen$4.4M vol.Yes 46%No 54%Smart money: No
- Fabien Roussel$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Clémence Guetté$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Valérie Pécresse$4.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Laurent Wauquiez$3.7M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Gabriel Attal$3.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Éric Zemmour$3.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Raphaël Glucksmann$3.0M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money split
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?"?
819 wallets hold a position worth $25K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 817 of them. The largest Yes holder is BurstedBubble, with $4.1K on it, $45K lifetime loss over 2 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is ivanx4k, with $1.5K on it, $2.0K lifetime profit over 282 markets (57% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $3.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 19, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
55% of the money on Yes and 57% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 18 points. A week ago, Yes by 18 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on April 19, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.