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Who's betting on “Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?”?

Politics · $18M volume · Ends November 8, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026

Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $18M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.

59% of the money on Yes and 16% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 43 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 37 points. A week ago, Yes by 27 points.

1,753 wallets hold a position worth $74K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,752 of them. The largest Yes holder is regularpenguin, with $7.0K on it, $771 lifetime loss over 5 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is fendrakon, with $652 on it, $89 lifetime loss over 19 markets (53% won).

1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $32 on Yes.

Yes2%
Smart money leans here
Smart money share
59%
Holders
754
Money on it
$68K
Holders' winrate
57%
Snipers
1 · $32
Insider flags
0
No98%
Smart money share
16% ▼ 7 pts 24 h
Holders
999
Money on it
$6.0K
Holders' winrate
57%
Snipers
0
Insider flags
0

The biggest holders on each side

Yes
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
regularpenguin$7.0K-$77160% of 5
11122noise$5.7K+$630K42% of 1,111
TaxIsTheftnoise$4.3K+$59740% of 361
Mugatu-eth$4.0K-$5.4K42% of 24
HerbertAppreciatorwhale$2.9K+$11K82% of 38
No
TraderPositionLifetime P&LWon
fendrakon$652-$8953% of 19
Lazerrice$452-$269% of 16
H786efhh7$404-$9642% of 19
oilboil$402-$7954% of 28
QuietRidgePilot$273-$1.6K70% of 105
Every holder, the full history, and alerts when the smart money moves

Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?"?

1,753 wallets hold a position worth $74K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,752 of them. The largest Yes holder is regularpenguin, with $7.0K on it, $771 lifetime loss over 5 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is fendrakon, with $652 on it, $89 lifetime loss over 19 markets (53% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $18M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.

Which side is the smart money on?

59% of the money on Yes and 16% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 43 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 37 points. A week ago, Yes by 27 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on November 8, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Who's betting on Polymarket · Polkyo