Who's betting on “Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?”?
Politics · $43M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $43M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
16% of the money on Yes and 41% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 26 points. A week ago, No by 27 points.
2,000 wallets hold a position worth $7.8M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,984 of them. The largest Yes holder is TexasOx, with $46K on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is 0xA2cd4CcdA9A1f95949DF7A3355C4c2DAa0642Ba0-1729178570395, with $1.4M on it, $429K lifetime loss over 18 markets (89% won).
7 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $93K on No; the insider radar has flagged 3 wallets betting $57K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 16%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $383K
- Holders' winrate
- 46%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 3 · $57K
- Smart money share
- 41%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $7.4M
- Holders' winrate
- 81%
- Snipers
- 7 · $93K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| TexasOx | $46K | +$0 | - |
| yeslabby | $39K | +$124 | - |
| ShayaEredyon | $27K | -$24K | 69% of 81 |
| celestat3123 | $26K | -$1.3K | 40% of 10 |
| NqJoaquin | $16K | -$2.5K | 42% of 12 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xA2cd4CcdA9A1f95949DF7A3355C4c2DAa0642Ba0-1729178570395 | $1.4M | -$429K | 89% of 18 |
| world-changer | $874K | -$283 | 67% of 3 |
| SecondWindCapital | $428K | -$146K | 82% of 34 |
| elmcap2whale | $370K | +$2.1M | 86% of 1,082 |
| Gracious-Hugger | $226K | -$362K | 53% of 36 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
- October 31$1.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- September 30$7.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Who's betting on Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?"?
2,000 wallets hold a position worth $7.8M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,984 of them. The largest Yes holder is TexasOx, with $46K on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is 0xA2cd4CcdA9A1f95949DF7A3355C4c2DAa0642Ba0-1729178570395, with $1.4M on it, $429K lifetime loss over 18 markets (89% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $43M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
16% of the money on Yes and 41% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 26 points. A week ago, No by 27 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
3 wallets on Yes ($57K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.