Who's betting on “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?”?
Politics · $1.1M volume · Ends November 1, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
10% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 84 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 85 points. A week ago, No by 85 points.
541 wallets hold a position worth $802K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 537 of them. The largest Yes holder is TexasOx, with $2.4K on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is elmcap2, with $222K on it, $2.1M lifetime profit over 1,082 markets (86% won).
- Smart money share
- 10%
- Holders
- 57
- Money on it
- $3.6K
- Holders' winrate
- 58%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 95%
- Holders
- 484
- Money on it
- $799K
- Holders' winrate
- 83%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| TexasOx | $2.4K | +$0 | - |
| NWORobotics | $289 | +$17 | 100% of 1 |
| xasd-440 | $230 | -$12K | 50% of 26 |
| lifeswhatyoumakeit | $151 | -$13K | - |
| anna003 | $143 | -$6.6K | 80% of 10 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| elmcap2whale | $222K | +$2.1M | 86% of 1,082 |
| Avamaxwhale | $111K | +$14K | 74% of 761 |
| 0xAD96914D7762DAC84EbBABAfE366AE8ff24Dd49whale | $78K | +$157K | 85% of 105 |
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMAwhale | $55K | +$1.8M | 69% of 1,104 |
| Dafu0715whale | $50K | +$114K | 70% of 289 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
- December 31$43M vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- September 30$7.2M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Who's betting on Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?"?
541 wallets hold a position worth $802K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 537 of them. The largest Yes holder is TexasOx, with $2.4K on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is elmcap2, with $222K on it, $2.1M lifetime profit over 1,082 markets (86% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
10% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 84 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 85 points. A week ago, No by 85 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.