Who's betting on “Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?”?
Politics · $28M volume · Ends November 8, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 16¢ and No at 84¢, an 84% implied chance of No. $28M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.
64% of the money on Yes and 57% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 7 points. A week ago it was split.
1,999 wallets hold a position worth $699K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,997 of them. The largest Yes holder is gatorr, with $63K on it, $1.1M lifetime profit over 902 markets (52% won). The largest No holder is 0x6e82…752c, with $51K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,000 markets (79% won).
3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.8K on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.4K on No.
- Smart money share
- 64%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $530K
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 3 · $1.8K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 57%
- Holders
- 999
- Money on it
- $169K
- Holders' winrate
- 68%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.4K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| gatorrwhale | $63K | +$1.1M | 52% of 902 |
| Hugewinnernoise | $53K | +$1.1M | 30% of 378 |
| fuc.your.mother | $34K | -$9.5K | 87% of 68 |
| cocos228whale | $29K | +$537K | 71% of 110 |
| Ket218 | $22K | -$19K | 50% of 10 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x6e82…752cwhale | $51K | +$1.5M | 79% of 1,000 |
| lastminwin | $17K | -$10K | 57% of 7 |
| BreakTheBankwhale | $4.1K | +$10M | 87% of 609 |
| SteamRollerPenniesbalanced | $2.9K | +$13K | 76% of 49 |
| 0xa2E12338Ec98950aD0d692143DEAb2382b6d621F-1756722075516 | $2.8K | +$0 | - |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?"?
1,999 wallets hold a position worth $699K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,997 of them. The largest Yes holder is gatorr, with $63K on it, $1.1M lifetime profit over 902 markets (52% won). The largest No holder is 0x6e82…752c, with $51K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,000 markets (79% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 16¢ and No at 84¢, an 84% implied chance of No. $28M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 8, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
64% of the money on Yes and 57% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 7 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 8, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.