Who's betting on “Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?”?
Politics · $2.5M volume · Ends April 19, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 11¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $2.5M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 19, 2027.
45% of the money on Yes and 37% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 9 points. A week ago it was split.
1,214 wallets hold a position worth $398K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,205 of them. The largest Yes holder is LlamaLoco0000, with $27K on it, $348K lifetime profit over 297 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is lastminwin, with $70K on it, $10K lifetime loss over 7 markets (57% won).
The insider radar has flagged 4 wallets betting $26K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 45%
- Holders
- 726
- Money on it
- $161K
- Holders' winrate
- 55%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 4 · $26K
- Smart money share
- 37%
- Holders
- 488
- Money on it
- $237K
- Holders' winrate
- 67%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| LlamaLoco0000noise | $27K | +$348K | 45% of 297 |
| PappyB | $16K | -$10K | 43% of 7 |
| Luche38bnb | $9.3K | -$365 | 0% of 2 |
| BaucheJerome | $6.6K | -$253 | 0% of 1 |
| spx11whale | $4.7K | +$112K | 62% of 178 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| lastminwin | $70K | -$10K | 57% of 7 |
| Momo63whale | $41K | +$121K | 92% of 960 |
| oolacillll | $20K | +$0 | - |
| Hamapo | $15K | -$17K | 34% of 193 |
| Rattlehead | $8.9K | -$105 | 0% of 2 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Next French Presidential Election
- Ségolène Royal$7.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Olivier Faure$6.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Mathilde Panot$6.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- François Asselineau$6.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Xavier Bertrand$6.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- François Bayrou$5.9M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Yaël Braun-Pivet$5.8M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Élisabeth Borne$5.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- David Lisnard$5.3M vol.Yes 13%No 87%Smart money: No
- Michel Barnier$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Manuel Bompard$5.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Clémentine Autain$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan$4.9M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- François Ruffin$4.8M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Carole Delga$4.7M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Marine Tondelier$4.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Marine Le Pen$4.4M vol.Yes 46%No 54%Smart money: No
- Fabien Roussel$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Clémence Guetté$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Valérie Pécresse$4.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Laurent Wauquiez$3.7M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Gabriel Attal$3.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Bruno Retailleau$3.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- Éric Zemmour$3.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?"?
1,214 wallets hold a position worth $398K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,205 of them. The largest Yes holder is LlamaLoco0000, with $27K on it, $348K lifetime profit over 297 markets (45% won). The largest No holder is lastminwin, with $70K on it, $10K lifetime loss over 7 markets (57% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 11¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $2.5M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 19, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
45% of the money on Yes and 37% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 9 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on April 19, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
4 wallets on Yes ($26K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.