Who's betting on “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?”?
Polkyo has not scored enough holders on both sides yet to say where the smart money sits. It fills in as people trade.
- Volume
- $128K traded all time
- Held now
- $72K by 151 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 80% 87 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- - 62 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 93¢ and No at 7¢, a 93% implied chance of Yes. $128K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 5, 2026.
The smart money
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
Who holds it
151 wallets hold a position worth $72K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 149 of them. The largest Yes holder is LulaVaiPerder, with $20K on it, $308K lifetime profit over 478 markets (79% won). The largest No holder is Sofiamas, with $2.2K on it, $5.9K lifetime profit over 4 markets (50% won).
Sharp money
The insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $4.7K on No.
- Holders
- 88
- Money on it
- $67K
- Holders' win rate
- 68%
- Holders
- 63
- Money on it
- $4.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
- Insider flags
- 1 · $4.7K
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$67K on it
- 1LulaVaiPerder79% won of 478 · whale$20K+$308K lifetime
- 20x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-176070367496066% won of 426 · whale$9.3K+$129K lifetime
- 30x36dAfd0ed99D902F8bDfe9e090ecDc48b053907B-176268842113675% won of 419$6.0K−$1.5K lifetime
- 4wienerdog56% won of 340 · whale$5.0K+$16K lifetime
- 5MEPP62% won of 1,091 · whale$4.7K+$562K lifetime
No$4.7K on it
- 1Sofiamas50% won of 4$2.2K+$5.9K lifetime
- 2classified58% won of 1,578 · whale$597+$998K lifetime
- 3Saqn21100% won of 4$255−$329 lifetime
- 4ShoudaCouda73% won of 51 · balanced$195+$2.7K lifetime
- 5Car58% won of 1,865 · whale$151+$1.5M lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
18 more- October 31$4.3M vol.Yes 99%No 1%Smart money: Yes
- December 31$1.5M vol.Yes 37%No 64%Smart money: Yes
- November 30$754K vol.Yes 53%No 47%Smart money: Yes
- November 15$534K vol.Yes 65%No 36%Smart money: Yes
- November 3$148K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Too little scored money to compare
- November 2$145K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Too little scored money to compare
- November 1$108K vol.Yes 99%No 1%Too little scored money to compare
- November 5$62K vol.Yes 89%No 12%Too little scored money to compare
- November 7$50K vol.Yes 80%No 21%Too little scored money to compare
- October 30$36K vol.Yes 100%No 0%Too little scored money to compare
- November 6$24K vol.Yes 85%No 16%Too little scored money to compare
- September 30$3.3M vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
- October 21$1.4M vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
- October 15$955K vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
- October 18$804K vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
- October 27$511K vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
- October 24$294K vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
- October 9$60K vol. · ClosedResolved YesToo little scored money to compare
Other big iran markets
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.8M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.7M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.2M vol.Yes 17%No 84%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$1.0M vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: Yes
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?$786K vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- Iran full airspace closure by December 31?$765K vol.Yes 37%No 63%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?"?
151 wallets hold a position worth $72K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 149 of them. The largest Yes holder is LulaVaiPerder, with $20K on it, $308K lifetime profit over 478 markets (79% won). The largest No holder is Sofiamas, with $2.2K on it, $5.9K lifetime profit over 4 markets (50% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 93¢ and No at 7¢, a 93% implied chance of Yes. $128K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 5, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 5, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on No ($4.7K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.