Who's betting on “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?”?
Iran · $1.2M volume · Ends November 1, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $1.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
46% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 20 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
369 wallets hold a position worth $669K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 366 of them. The largest Yes holder is asdfasdav, with $1.0K on it, $1.6K lifetime loss over 27 markets (52% won). The largest No holder is The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA, with $300K on it, $1.8M lifetime profit over 1,104 markets (69% won).
- Smart money share
- 46% ▼ 12 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 148
- Money on it
- $9.4K
- Holders' winrate
- 56%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 78%
- Holders
- 221
- Money on it
- $660K
- Holders' winrate
- 76%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| asdfasdav | $1.0K | -$1.6K | 52% of 27 |
| 0x028531362EE0cCe8097d5b65Ae9f533CaA9d96b9-1777060014681 | $978 | -$4.3K | 67% of 6 |
| betwickwhale | $927 | +$636K | 56% of 767 |
| tryingmyluckherewhale | $826 | +$154K | 46% of 493 |
| hy5ppr | $473 | -$724 | 0% of 1 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMAwhale | $300K | +$1.8M | 69% of 1,104 |
| pilimili | $129K | -$249K | 78% of 213 |
| Trump2028whale | $90K | +$360K | 87% of 503 |
| thoodrwhale | $22K | +$91K | 96% of 810 |
| SAPolitcsSeerwhale | $21K | +$64K | 92% of 83 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Other big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.1M vol.Yes 86%No 14%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.0M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 40%No 61%Smart money: Yes
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$937K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?$771K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$672K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?"?
369 wallets hold a position worth $669K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 366 of them. The largest Yes holder is asdfasdav, with $1.0K on it, $1.6K lifetime loss over 27 markets (52% won). The largest No holder is The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA, with $300K on it, $1.8M lifetime profit over 1,104 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $1.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
46% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 20 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.