Who's betting on “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?”?
Iran · $1.2M volume · Ends December 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 40¢ and No at 61¢, a 61% implied chance of No. $1.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
93% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 28 points. A week ago, Yes by 28 points.
448 wallets hold a position worth $212K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 443 of them. The largest Yes holder is Valen9, with $18K on it, $233K lifetime profit over 895 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is 52centis, with $37K on it, $45K lifetime loss over 191 markets (37% won).
3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $3.2K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 93% ▲ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 248
- Money on it
- $84K
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 3 · $3.2K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 61%
- Holders
- 200
- Money on it
- $128K
- Holders' winrate
- 53%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valen9whale | $18K | +$233K | 62% of 895 |
| classifiedwhale | $5.8K | +$1.1M | 58% of 1,412 |
| eCashwhale | $4.3K | +$273K | 70% of 652 |
| pakukudolphiwhale | $3.3K | +$138K | 46% of 310 |
| Carwhale | $3.3K | +$1.5M | 58% of 1,670 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52centis | $37K | -$45K | 37% of 191 |
| EasyGoingAbalanced | $23K | +$19K | 63% of 184 |
| meagainsttheworldwhale | $9.7K | +$147K | 76% of 1,056 |
| 0x91c3…409f | $7.5K | +$14K | 42% of 313 |
| 0xC3Db6a07351313cc684759Dee1722D2bB1e90F98-1768247047455noise | $5.9K | +$98K | 42% of 409 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 31$3.1M vol.Yes 86%No 14%Smart money: Yes
- November 30$652K vol.Yes 48%No 53%Smart money: Yes
- November 15$339K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money: Yes
- October 24$193K vol.Yes 99%No 1%Smart money: Yes
- October 27$84K vol.Yes 91%No 10%Smart money: Yes
- September 30$3.3M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 21$1.4M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 15$955K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 18$804K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 9$60K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Who's betting on Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? →
Other big iran markets
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money split
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.0M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$937K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?$771K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$672K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?"?
448 wallets hold a position worth $212K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 443 of them. The largest Yes holder is Valen9, with $18K on it, $233K lifetime profit over 895 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is 52centis, with $37K on it, $45K lifetime loss over 191 markets (37% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 40¢ and No at 61¢, a 61% implied chance of No. $1.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
93% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 28 points. A week ago, Yes by 28 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.