Who's betting on “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?”?
Iran · $937K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $937K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
66% of the money on Yes and 44% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 21 points. A week ago, Yes by 23 points.
392 wallets hold a position worth $500K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 392 of them. The largest Yes holder is meagainsttheworld, with $18K on it, $147K lifetime profit over 1,056 markets (76% won). The largest No holder is stupid22, with $220K on it, $98K lifetime loss over 979 markets (94% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $3.1K on No.
- Smart money share
- 66%
- Holders
- 120
- Money on it
- $42K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 44%
- Holders
- 272
- Money on it
- $457K
- Holders' winrate
- 85%
- Snipers
- 1 · $3.1K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| meagainsttheworldwhale | $18K | +$147K | 76% of 1,056 |
| 0x9377…2f06 | $11K | -$3.6K | 46% of 13 |
| dromedaryywhale | $9.4K | +$450K | 66% of 47 |
| 0x485a2E9AD89D9109BB4d37b925bA60f6350421cB-1768423550172 | $978 | -$185K | 33% of 33 |
| 0xCc3E670fE5B5297DA01Fc989B7fd42815b4f0E8d-1775719309846 | $434 | -$8.0K | 45% of 211 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| stupid22 | $220K | -$98K | 94% of 979 |
| hymoluwhale | $55K | +$120K | 63% of 80 |
| MrNoItAllwhale | $32K | +$37K | 90% of 509 |
| charlattawhale | $30K | +$6.6K | 85% of 329 |
| TheRealWarMonger | $21K | -$6.4K | 78% of 709 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
- October 31$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- September 30$3.0M vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Who's betting on Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? →
Other big iran markets
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money split
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.1M vol.Yes 86%No 14%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.0M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 40%No 61%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?$771K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$672K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?"?
392 wallets hold a position worth $500K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 392 of them. The largest Yes holder is meagainsttheworld, with $18K on it, $147K lifetime profit over 1,056 markets (76% won). The largest No holder is stupid22, with $220K on it, $98K lifetime loss over 979 markets (94% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $937K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
66% of the money on Yes and 44% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 21 points. A week ago, Yes by 23 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.