Who's betting on “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?”?
Iran · $3.6M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 86¢, an 86% implied chance of No. $3.6M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
81% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
822 wallets hold a position worth $893K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 820 of them. The largest Yes holder is wan123, with $40K on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 273 markets (79% won). The largest No holder is The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA, with $406K on it, $1.8M lifetime profit over 1,104 markets (69% won).
- Smart money share
- 81%
- Holders
- 455
- Money on it
- $129K
- Holders' winrate
- 68%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 78%
- Holders
- 367
- Money on it
- $763K
- Holders' winrate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| wan123whale | $40K | +$1.2M | 79% of 273 |
| shuanyangwhale | $12K | +$40K | 74% of 133 |
| denizzwhale | $8.1K | +$2.3M | 66% of 1,006 |
| 0xce1d…1b9bwhale | $6.5K | +$41K | 57% of 267 |
| Valen9whale | $6.0K | +$233K | 62% of 895 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMAwhale | $406K | +$1.8M | 69% of 1,104 |
| pilimili | $131K | -$249K | 78% of 213 |
| hopedieslastwhale | $39K | +$260K | 61% of 233 |
| Trump2028whale | $29K | +$360K | 87% of 503 |
| eCashwhale | $27K | +$273K | 70% of 652 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Other big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.1M vol.Yes 86%No 14%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.0M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 40%No 61%Smart money: Yes
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$937K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?$771K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$672K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?"?
822 wallets hold a position worth $893K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 820 of them. The largest Yes holder is wan123, with $40K on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 273 markets (79% won). The largest No holder is The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA, with $406K on it, $1.8M lifetime profit over 1,104 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 86¢, an 86% implied chance of No. $3.6M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
81% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.