Who's betting on “Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?”?
Iran · $771K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $771K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
84% of the money on Yes and 72% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 13 points. A week ago, Yes by 19 points.
326 wallets hold a position worth $154K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 325 of them. The largest Yes holder is RememberAmalek, with $5.7K on it, $837K lifetime profit over 1,102 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is tetrase, with $22K on it, $965K lifetime profit over 1,185 markets (65% won).
- Smart money share
- 84%
- Holders
- 159
- Money on it
- $19K
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 72% ▲ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 167
- Money on it
- $135K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalekwhale | $5.7K | +$837K | 73% of 1,102 |
| Valen9whale | $1.7K | +$233K | 62% of 895 |
| 8dcc906a9b | $1.7K | -$38K | 52% of 155 |
| AlphaBetaGamma2357whale | $1.5K | +$71K | 50% of 232 |
| Warren-Buffettwhale | $1.5K | +$128K | 68% of 1,049 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| tetrasewhale | $22K | +$965K | 65% of 1,185 |
| 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960whale | $18K | +$98K | 64% of 380 |
| aannggg | $16K | +$0 | - |
| endlesssss | $11K | -$81K | 61% of 307 |
| DerDonwhale | $8.6K | +$94K | 55% of 1,164 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
- October 31$127K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- September 30$468K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Who's betting on Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...? →
Other big iran markets
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money split
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.1M vol.Yes 86%No 14%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.0M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 40%No 61%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$937K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?"?
326 wallets hold a position worth $154K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 325 of them. The largest Yes holder is RememberAmalek, with $5.7K on it, $837K lifetime profit over 1,102 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is tetrase, with $22K on it, $965K lifetime profit over 1,185 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $771K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
84% of the money on Yes and 72% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 13 points. A week ago, Yes by 19 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.