Who's betting on “Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?”?
Iran · $2.6M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $2.6M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
35% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 55 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 55 points. A week ago, No by 56 points.
981 wallets hold a position worth $591K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 978 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x485a2E9AD89D9109BB4d37b925bA60f6350421cB-1768423550172, with $4.7K on it, $185K lifetime loss over 33 markets (33% won). The largest No holder is denizz, with $154K on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,006 markets (66% won).
- Smart money share
- 35%
- Holders
- 383
- Money on it
- $26K
- Holders' winrate
- 47%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 90%
- Holders
- 598
- Money on it
- $565K
- Holders' winrate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x485a2E9AD89D9109BB4d37b925bA60f6350421cB-1768423550172 | $4.7K | -$185K | 33% of 33 |
| 0xE42b5f3C8EC8DC615cA8A073186D27B3934b8444-1768006366972 | $3.2K | -$3.4K | 50% of 2 |
| debasedwhale | $2.1K | +$1.4M | 46% of 1,067 |
| 0xf724…85cc | $1.9K | -$1.7K | 48% of 21 |
| 0x0b30d7a048a270c8d7311f2e45344F105c9354f9-1767401919066 | $1.8K | +$15K | 50% of 6 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| denizzwhale | $154K | +$2.3M | 66% of 1,006 |
| keribitwhale | $62K | +$108K | 80% of 496 |
| tetrasewhale | $52K | +$965K | 65% of 1,185 |
| kevtpwhale | $43K | +$70K | 77% of 349 |
| 0xB121F5786E0d26B411A0F8D900103D9B517Db73C-1776794927996balanced | $23K | +$8.5K | 97% of 38 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
Other big iran markets
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money split
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.1M vol.Yes 86%No 14%Smart money: Yes
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.0M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 40%No 61%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$937K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?$771K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?"?
981 wallets hold a position worth $591K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 978 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x485a2E9AD89D9109BB4d37b925bA60f6350421cB-1768423550172, with $4.7K on it, $185K lifetime loss over 33 markets (33% won). The largest No holder is denizz, with $154K on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,006 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $2.6M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
35% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 55 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 55 points. A week ago, No by 56 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.