Who's betting on “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?”?
Iran · $3.1M volume · Ends October 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 86¢ and No at 14¢, an 86% implied chance of Yes. $3.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
83% of the money on Yes and 52% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 29 points. A week ago, Yes by 37 points.
1,165 wallets hold a position worth $771K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,144 of them. The largest Yes holder is Votei14Voude22, with $142K on it, $715K lifetime profit over 480 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is tetrose, with $14K on it, $213K lifetime profit over 565 markets (55% won).
3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $6.4K on Yes; the insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $1.2K on No.
- Smart money share
- 83% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 533
- Money on it
- $663K
- Holders' winrate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 3 · $6.4K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 52% ▼ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 632
- Money on it
- $108K
- Holders' winrate
- 53%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 1 · $1.2K
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Votei14Voude22whale | $142K | +$715K | 80% of 480 |
| 65765757whale | $49K | +$256K | 82% of 390 |
| anoin123 | $48K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| mr.oziwhale | $34K | +$769K | 65% of 1,069 |
| carlos484balanced | $26K | +$51K | 62% of 42 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| tetrosewhale | $14K | +$213K | 55% of 565 |
| 52centis | $13K | -$45K | 37% of 191 |
| dromedaryywhale | $7.0K | +$450K | 66% of 47 |
| Brokiewhale | $4.2K | +$180K | 59% of 906 |
| 0x3811…8f61 | $3.5K | -$14K | 9% of 11 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- December 31$1.2M vol.Yes 40%No 61%Smart money: Yes
- November 30$652K vol.Yes 48%No 53%Smart money: Yes
- November 15$339K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money: Yes
- October 24$193K vol.Yes 99%No 1%Smart money: Yes
- October 27$84K vol.Yes 91%No 10%Smart money: Yes
- September 30$3.3M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 21$1.4M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 15$955K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 18$804K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 9$60K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Who's betting on Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? →
Other big iran markets
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money split
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.0M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$937K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?$771K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$672K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?"?
1,165 wallets hold a position worth $771K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,144 of them. The largest Yes holder is Votei14Voude22, with $142K on it, $715K lifetime profit over 480 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is tetrose, with $14K on it, $213K lifetime profit over 565 markets (55% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 86¢ and No at 14¢, an 86% implied chance of Yes. $3.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
83% of the money on Yes and 52% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 29 points. A week ago, Yes by 37 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on No ($1.2K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.