Who's betting on “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?”?
Iran · $339K volume · Ends November 16, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 56¢ and No at 44¢, a 56% implied chance of Yes. $339K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 16, 2026.
73% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 12 points. A week ago, Yes by 27 points.
285 wallets hold a position worth $63K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 280 of them. The largest Yes holder is Tenebrus7, with $4.8K on it, $155K lifetime profit over 1,516 markets (66% won). The largest No holder is geekoflemon, with $4.8K on it, $20K lifetime profit over 13 markets (69% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.1K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 73%
- Holders
- 134
- Money on it
- $35K
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.1K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 61%
- Holders
- 151
- Money on it
- $28K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tenebrus7whale | $4.8K | +$155K | 66% of 1,516 |
| classifiedwhale | $4.3K | +$1.1M | 58% of 1,412 |
| pakukudolphiwhale | $3.3K | +$138K | 46% of 310 |
| anoin123 | $2.9K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| Haradwaith | $2.2K | -$334K | 50% of 45,603 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| geekoflemon | $4.8K | +$20K | 69% of 13 |
| EmanuelEGbalanced | $3.2K | +$131 | 64% of 33 |
| tatimatidaoc | $2.8K | +$0 | - |
| cashywhale | $2.4K | +$557K | 74% of 1,025 |
| meagainsttheworldwhale | $1.3K | +$147K | 76% of 1,056 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 31$3.1M vol.Yes 85%No 16%Smart money: Yes
- December 31$1.2M vol.Yes 40%No 60%Smart money: Yes
- November 30$652K vol.Yes 48%No 53%Smart money: Yes
- October 24$196K vol.Yes 99%No 1%Smart money: Yes
- October 27$85K vol.Yes 92%No 9%Smart money: Yes
- September 30$3.3M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 21$1.4M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 15$955K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 18$804K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 9$60K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Who's betting on Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? →
Other big iran markets
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money split
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.0M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$937K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?$773K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$672K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?"?
285 wallets hold a position worth $63K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 280 of them. The largest Yes holder is Tenebrus7, with $4.8K on it, $155K lifetime profit over 1,516 markets (66% won). The largest No holder is geekoflemon, with $4.8K on it, $20K lifetime profit over 13 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 56¢ and No at 44¢, a 56% implied chance of Yes. $339K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 16, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
73% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 12 points. A week ago, Yes by 27 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 16, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.