Who's betting on “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?”?
Iran · $85K volume · Ends October 28, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 92¢ and No at 9¢, a 92% implied chance of Yes. $85K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 28, 2026.
78% of the money on Yes and 49% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 29 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 35 points.
202 wallets hold a position worth $63K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 188 of them. The largest Yes holder is Saltyballs, with $9.8K on it, $179K lifetime profit over 924 markets (49% won). The largest No holder is razrin3, with $746 on it, $3.9K lifetime profit over 3 markets (100% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $448 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 78% ▼ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 95
- Money on it
- $57K
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 1 · $448
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 49% ▲ 4 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 107
- Money on it
- $5.6K
- Holders' winrate
- 54%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saltyballswhale | $9.8K | +$179K | 49% of 924 |
| anoin123 | $9.6K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| CaptainCoinflipwhale | $5.5K | +$91K | 55% of 255 |
| eCashwhale | $4.9K | +$273K | 70% of 652 |
| 0xDE9972e93FCfcAB10B4Ad39847f1e7FCd6619822-1773200172165 | $4.5K | +$631 | 90% of 10 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| razrin3 | $746 | +$3.9K | 100% of 3 |
| 0x55ea…77a7 | $646 | - | - |
| ElsaMi | $540 | -$17K | 71% of 407 |
| 0x1f369b9D50651fD28a104f8d304e2Fb3fa546eE6-1769194929606 | $393 | -$735 | 50% of 2 |
| hivemindilan | $281 | -$6.5K | 43% of 152 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 31$3.1M vol.Yes 85%No 16%Smart money: Yes
- December 31$1.2M vol.Yes 40%No 60%Smart money: Yes
- November 30$652K vol.Yes 48%No 53%Smart money: Yes
- November 15$339K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money: Yes
- October 24$196K vol.Yes 99%No 1%Smart money: Yes
- September 30$3.3M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 21$1.4M vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 15$955K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 18$804K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 9$60K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Who's betting on Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? →
Other big iran markets
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money split
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.0M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$937K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?$773K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$672K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?"?
202 wallets hold a position worth $63K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 188 of them. The largest Yes holder is Saltyballs, with $9.8K on it, $179K lifetime profit over 924 markets (49% won). The largest No holder is razrin3, with $746 on it, $3.9K lifetime profit over 3 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 92¢ and No at 9¢, a 92% implied chance of Yes. $85K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 28, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
78% of the money on Yes and 49% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 29 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 35 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 28, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.