Who's betting on “Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?”?
Iran · $127K volume · Ends November 1, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $127K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
97% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 18 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 18 points. A week ago, Yes by 18 points.
135 wallets hold a position worth $79K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 135 of them. The largest Yes holder is RememberAmalek, with $616 on it, $837K lifetime profit over 1,102 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is thoodr, with $21K on it, $91K lifetime profit over 810 markets (96% won).
- Smart money share
- 97%
- Holders
- 39
- Money on it
- $993
- Holders' winrate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 79%
- Holders
- 96
- Money on it
- $78K
- Holders' winrate
- 81%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalekwhale | $616 | +$837K | 73% of 1,102 |
| AlphaBetaGamma2357whale | $287 | +$71K | 50% of 232 |
| Meckywhale | $13 | +$96K | 48% of 391 |
| planktonXDwhale | $9 | +$131K | 76% of 5,427 |
| 0x9FE0c1F38e9Da3487f737BAdfC070DdF3913b26C-1761596748705 | $7 | -$621 | 27% of 11 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| thoodrwhale | $21K | +$91K | 96% of 810 |
| tetrasewhale | $14K | +$965K | 65% of 1,185 |
| TronOGwhale | $9.7K | +$55K | 83% of 409 |
| Lord-Of-Democracy | $4.6K | -$2.4K | 84% of 80 |
| pagliacci4 | $2.7K | -$20K | 93% of 1,511 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
- December 31$773K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- September 30$468K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Who's betting on Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...? →
Other big iran markets
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money split
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.1M vol.Yes 86%No 14%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.0M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 41%No 60%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$937K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?"?
135 wallets hold a position worth $79K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 135 of them. The largest Yes holder is RememberAmalek, with $616 on it, $837K lifetime profit over 1,102 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is thoodr, with $21K on it, $91K lifetime profit over 810 markets (96% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $127K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
97% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 18 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 18 points. A week ago, Yes by 18 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.