Who's betting on “Iran full airspace closure by December 31?”?
Iran · $623K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 40¢ and No at 60¢, a 60% implied chance of No. $623K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
74% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, No by 40 points.
335 wallets hold a position worth $134K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 333 of them. The largest Yes holder is tieguanyin, with $9.8K on it, $2.3K lifetime profit over 18 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is Valen9, with $21K on it, $233K lifetime profit over 895 markets (62% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $9 on No.
- Smart money share
- 74%
- Holders
- 182
- Money on it
- $54K
- Holders' winrate
- 52%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 80%
- Holders
- 153
- Money on it
- $80K
- Holders' winrate
- 57%
- Snipers
- 1 · $9
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| tieguanyin | $9.8K | +$2.3K | 50% of 18 |
| jiezhi | $9.2K | +$1.5K | 47% of 17 |
| DonJoey1 | $8.1K | +$72K | 65% of 17 |
| 0x4135…e462 | $6.0K | -$4.0K | 20% of 122 |
| 0x6e378174C7761a7006D26Ececa94E342D81e2849-1779342433278 | $2.1K | -$2.8K | 70% of 10 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Iran full airspace closure by...?
Other big iran markets
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money split
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.1M vol.Yes 86%No 14%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.0M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 40%No 61%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$937K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Iran full airspace closure by December 31?"?
335 wallets hold a position worth $134K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 333 of them. The largest Yes holder is tieguanyin, with $9.8K on it, $2.3K lifetime profit over 18 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is Valen9, with $21K on it, $233K lifetime profit over 895 markets (62% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Iran full airspace closure by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 40¢ and No at 60¢, a 60% implied chance of No. $623K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
74% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, No by 40 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.