Who's betting on “Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Ohio?”?
Polkyo has not scored enough holders on both sides yet to say where the smart money sits. It fills in as people trade.
- Volume
- $459K traded all time
- Held now
- $15K by 61 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 90% 56 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- - 4 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $459K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
The smart money
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
Who holds it
61 wallets hold a position worth $15K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $11K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 719 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is anciano, with $796 on it, $48K lifetime profit over 1,557 markets (49% won).
- Holders
- 57
- Money on it
- $14K
- Holders' win rate
- 82%
- Holders
- 4
- Money on it
- $1.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 37%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$14K on it
- 1BreakTheBank88% won of 719 · whale$11K+$11M lifetime
- 2MMH550% won of 4$698−$789 lifetime
- 30x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-175993579546548% won of 6,574 · whale$520+$5.2M lifetime
- 4pax18% won of 28$383−$1.8K lifetime
- 588111260% won of 1,213 · whale$280+$461K lifetime
No$1.7K on it
- 1anciano49% won of 1,557 · whale$796+$48K lifetime
- 2Digital-Boy17% won of 2,571$748−$80K lifetime
- 3Elias.Thornwell70% won of 3,544$80−$804 lifetime
- 4ghorrock64% won of 38,938 · whale$79+$7.5K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
24 more- None$5.8M vol.Yes 37%No 64%Smart money: No
- AK, IA, KS, MI, TX$2.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS$2.5M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- IA$2.0M vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: No
- IA, KS, MI$815K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA$790K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, ME$766K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, MI, TX$719K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, ME, MI, TX$711K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- MI$661K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- AK, KS, ME, MI, TX$648K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS, MI$615K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, MI, OH, TX$598K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- KS, MI, TX$586K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, ME$585K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, ME$563K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- AK, KS, ME, OH$563K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, ME, MI, OH$549K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS$509K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, ME, OH, TX$506K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, ME, MI, OH$503K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, ME, MI, TX$491K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS, TX$481K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- MI, TX$479K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$77M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$46M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Ohio?"?
61 wallets hold a position worth $15K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $11K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 719 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is anciano, with $796 on it, $48K lifetime profit over 1,557 markets (49% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Ohio?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $459K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 3, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.