Who's betting on “Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 98% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 9 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $378K traded all time
- Held now
- $62K by 58 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 98% 46 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 89% 11 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $378K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
The smart money
98% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 99 points.
Who holds it
58 wallets hold a position worth $62K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 57 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $13K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 687 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465, with $31K on it, $4.4M lifetime profit over 6,384 markets (48% won).
- Holders
- 47
- Money on it
- $15K
- Holders' win rate
- 83%
- Holders
- 11
- Money on it
- $47K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$15K on it
- 1BreakTheBank88% won of 687 · whale$13K+$11M lifetime
- 2Crock9560% won of 574 · whale$757+$227K lifetime
- 3SnapElectionAvoider47% won of 2,469 · whale$572+$207K lifetime
- 4shaloooom56% won of 122 · balanced$327+$783 lifetime
- 5twe2nty68% won of 293$180−$13K lifetime
No$47K on it
- 10x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-175993579546548% won of 6,384 · whale$31K+$4.4M lifetime
- 2Alicie88% won of 33 · balanced$9.9K+$1.3K lifetime
- 3BunCaCham78% won of 580$2.2K−$165K lifetime
- 4milkteaboba58% won of 109$1.7K−$829K lifetime
- 5nooneX75% won of 114$1.2K−$3.3K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
24 more- None$3.1M vol.Yes 32%No 69%Smart money split
- IA, KS$2.1M vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money: Yes
- AK, IA, KS, MI, TX$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA$1.1M vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- IA, KS, MI$665K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- IA, OH$343K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- OH$341K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- KS, MI$303K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- AK, IA, ME, MI, OH$297K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA$284K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- ME$279K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
- IA, MI$277K vol.Yes 1%No 100%Smart money split
- KS, ME, OH, TX$269K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, ME$268K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- AK, ME, MI$263K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, ME$262K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- AK, IA, MI, OH$258K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- All 7$254K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- AK, IA, ME, MI, TX$245K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- AK, IA, MI, OH, TX$238K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- KS, ME, MI, OH$236K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- TX$235K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, OH, TX$233K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK$231K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$46M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?"?
58 wallets hold a position worth $62K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 57 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $13K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 687 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465, with $31K on it, $4.4M lifetime profit over 6,384 markets (48% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $378K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
98% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 99 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 3, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.