Who's betting on “Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?”?
Smart money leans No: 92% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 65 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $630K traded all time
- Held now
- $237K by 97 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 27% 49 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 92% 44 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 86¢, an 86% implied chance of No. $630K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
The smart money
27% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 65 points.
Who holds it
97 wallets hold a position worth $237K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 93 of them. The largest Yes holder is bruhzil, with $76K on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is UnderperformingForALiving, with $86K on it, $361K lifetime profit over 255 markets (35% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $7 on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $2.2K on No; the insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $59K on Yes.
- Holders
- 53
- Money on it
- $106K
- Holders' win rate
- 84%
- Snipers
- 1 · $7
- Insider flags
- 1 · $59K
- Holders
- 44
- Money on it
- $132K
- Holders' win rate
- 44%
- Snipers
- 1 · $2.2K
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$106K on it
- 1bruhzilno record yet$76K+$0 lifetime
- 2BreakTheBank88% won of 675 · whale$25K+$10M lifetime
- 3Contestable-Parfait60% won of 425 · whale$2.8K+$170K lifetime
- 4OATH198960% won of 100$312−$1.3K lifetime
- 5KissingGolden57% won of 14$139−$1.3K lifetime
No$132K on it
- 1UnderperformingForALiving35% won of 255 · noise$86K+$361K lifetime
- 2sdhyky60% won of 1,121 · whale$16K+$34K lifetime
- 3JJo67% won of 1,080 · whale$7.7K+$278K lifetime
- 4sbimbg84% won of 1,413 · whale$4.3K+$124K lifetime
- 5feeder-of-markets34% won of 59$3.4K−$24K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
15 more- IA, KS$756K vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- None$220K vol.Yes 25%No 76%Smart money: Yes
- All 7$52K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- KS$22K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, ME$19K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, MI$18K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, ME$18K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, MI$17K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, ME, MI, TX$16K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS, ME, TX$14K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, ME, OH, TX$13K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, ME, OH$11K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- KS, TX$11K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, TX$10K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- ME$10K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?"?
97 wallets hold a position worth $237K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 93 of them. The largest Yes holder is bruhzil, with $76K on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is UnderperformingForALiving, with $86K on it, $361K lifetime profit over 255 markets (35% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 86¢, an 86% implied chance of No. $630K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
27% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 65 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 3, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on Yes ($59K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.