Who's betting on “Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?”?
Polkyo has not scored enough holders on both sides yet to say where the smart money sits. It fills in as people trade.
- Volume
- $16K traded all time
- Held now
- $11K by 45 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 99% 34 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- - 11 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
The smart money
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
Who holds it
45 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 45 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $9.0K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 678 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is qwen300.fund, with $573 on it, $626K lifetime profit over 142,693 markets (33% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $0 on Yes.
- Holders
- 34
- Money on it
- $9.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 86%
- Snipers
- 1 · $0
- Holders
- 11
- Money on it
- $1.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 44%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$9.5K on it
- 1BreakTheBank88% won of 678 · whale$9.0K+$11M lifetime
- 2SnapElectionAvoider47% won of 2,368 · whale$300+$207K lifetime
- 3papakilofoxtrot16% won of 660$39−$868 lifetime
- 40x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393843% won of 12,076 · whale$36+$135K lifetime
- 5ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,253 · whale$30+$323K lifetime
No$1.8K on it
- 1qwen300.fund33% won of 142,693 · noise$573+$626K lifetime
- 2balthazar53% won of 57,563 · whale$492+$1.2M lifetime
- 3tradetosurvive144% won of 26,910$346−$218K lifetime
- 4lissartter55% won of 3,103$197−$312K lifetime
- 5VictorLudorum37% won of 11,541 · noise$133+$165K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
15 more- IA, KS$756K vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- IA$631K vol.Yes 13%No 87%Smart money: No
- None$221K vol.Yes 25%No 76%Smart money split
- All 7$53K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- KS$22K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, ME$20K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, MI$19K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, ME$19K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, MI$17K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS, ME, TX$16K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, ME, OH, TX$14K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- ME$12K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, ME, OH$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- KS, TX$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, TX$11K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?"?
45 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 45 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $9.0K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 678 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is qwen300.fund, with $573 on it, $626K lifetime profit over 142,693 markets (33% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 3, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.