Who's betting on “Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 100% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 64 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $261K traded all time
- Held now
- $46K by 59 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 100% 43 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 36% 16 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $261K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
The smart money
100% of the money on Yes and 36% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 64 points.
Who holds it
59 wallets hold a position worth $46K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 59 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $26K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 687 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is BunCaCham, with $12K on it, $165K lifetime loss over 575 markets (78% won).
- Holders
- 43
- Money on it
- $27K
- Holders' win rate
- 87%
- Holders
- 16
- Money on it
- $19K
- Holders' win rate
- 77%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$27K on it
- 1BreakTheBank88% won of 687 · whale$26K+$11M lifetime
- 2RememberAmalek72% won of 1,147 · whale$43+$840K lifetime
- 3TimeTraveler88% won of 1,404 · whale$34+$156K lifetime
- 4planktonXD76% won of 7,058 · whale$29+$138K lifetime
- 5fiter19% won of 893 · noise$21+$53K lifetime
No$19K on it
- 1BunCaCham78% won of 575$12K−$165K lifetime
- 2Alicie82% won of 22 · balanced$5.9K+$1.3K lifetime
- 3Lolakis63% won of 1,789 · whale$492+$95K lifetime
- 4anciano50% won of 1,399 · whale$474+$40K lifetime
- 5Haradwaith50% won of 59,770$393−$381K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
24 more- None$2.1M vol.Yes 26%No 75%Smart money: No
- IA, KS$1.5M vol.Yes 11%No 90%Smart money: Yes
- AK, IA, KS, MI, TX$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA$981K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: Yes
- OH$247K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- All 7$214K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- TX$205K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- ME$194K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
- AK, KS, OH, TX$194K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, TX$178K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, ME, MI$172K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA$171K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, TX$165K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- ME, MI, TX$164K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, TX$161K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX$152K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- KS, ME, MI, OH$146K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, MI, OH, TX$143K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, MI, OH, TX$142K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- MI, TX$141K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, ME, MI, OH, TX$141K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS$139K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, ME$138K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- MI, OH, TX$137K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?"?
59 wallets hold a position worth $46K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 59 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $26K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 687 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is BunCaCham, with $12K on it, $165K lifetime loss over 575 markets (78% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $261K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
100% of the money on Yes and 36% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 64 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 3, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.