Who's betting on “Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $165K traded all time
- Held now
- $28K by 49 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 99% 42 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 99% 7 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $165K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
The smart money
99% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides.
Who holds it
49 wallets hold a position worth $28K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 49 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $8.3K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 687 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is andy29, with $9.9K on it, $64K lifetime profit over 745 markets (40% won).
- Holders
- 42
- Money on it
- $8.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 86%
- Holders
- 7
- Money on it
- $19K
- Holders' win rate
- 43%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$8.6K on it
- 1BreakTheBank88% won of 687 · whale$8.3K+$11M lifetime
- 2ithinkthisisgod43% won of 468 · noise$83+$5.0K lifetime
- 3SnapElectionAvoider47% won of 2,444 · whale$68+$207K lifetime
- 4sdhyky59% won of 1,163 · whale$27+$34K lifetime
- 50x49F20661% won of 988$26−$38K lifetime
No$19K on it
- 1andy2940% won of 745 · noise$9.9K+$64K lifetime
- 2ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,362 · whale$9.1K+$323K lifetime
- 3Haradwaith50% won of 59,770$199−$381K lifetime
- 4ghorrock64% won of 36,463 · whale$63+$8.0K lifetime
- 5prefict2027AT72% won of 709 · balanced$20+$264 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
24 more- None$2.1M vol.Yes 26%No 75%Smart money: No
- IA, KS$1.5M vol.Yes 11%No 90%Smart money: Yes
- AK, IA, KS, MI, TX$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA$981K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: Yes
- IA, OH$261K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- OH$247K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- All 7$214K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- TX$205K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- ME$194K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
- AK, KS, OH, TX$194K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, TX$178K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, ME, MI$172K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA$171K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- ME, MI, TX$164K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, TX$161K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX$152K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- KS, ME, MI, OH$146K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, MI, OH, TX$143K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, MI, OH, TX$142K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- MI, TX$141K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, ME, MI, OH, TX$141K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS$139K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, ME$138K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- MI, OH, TX$137K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?"?
49 wallets hold a position worth $28K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 49 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $8.3K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 687 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is andy29, with $9.9K on it, $64K lifetime profit over 745 markets (40% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $165K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
99% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 3, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.