Who's betting on “Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Ohio?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $245K traded all time
- Held now
- $18K by 47 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 100% 44 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 100% 3 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $245K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
The smart money
100% of the money on Yes and 100% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split.
Who holds it
47 wallets hold a position worth $18K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 47 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $6.4K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 687 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $10.0K on it, $323K lifetime profit over 4,482 markets (45% won).
- Holders
- 44
- Money on it
- $7.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 83%
- Holders
- 3
- Money on it
- $10K
- Holders' win rate
- 46%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$7.5K on it
- 1BreakTheBank88% won of 687 · whale$6.4K+$11M lifetime
- 2anciano50% won of 1,436 · whale$567+$40K lifetime
- 30x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-175993579546548% won of 6,384 · whale$271+$4.4M lifetime
- 4SnapElectionAvoider47% won of 2,469 · whale$46+$207K lifetime
- 50x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393843% won of 14,262 · whale$33+$135K lifetime
No$10K on it
- 1ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,482 · whale$10.0K+$323K lifetime
- 2iliabouchouev100% won of 6,044 · whale$100+$19K lifetime
- 3Elias.Thornwell70% won of 3,464 · whale$21+$84 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
24 more- None$3.2M vol.Yes 32%No 69%Smart money split
- IA, KS$2.1M vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money: Yes
- AK, IA, KS, MI, TX$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA$1.1M vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: No
- IA, KS, MI$665K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- MI$381K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- OH$344K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- IA, OH$343K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- KS, MI$305K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, ME, MI, OH$297K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA$284K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- ME$282K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
- IA, MI$280K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- KS, ME, OH, TX$272K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, ME$268K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, ME, MI$266K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, ME$262K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, MI, OH$258K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- All 7$254K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- KS, ME, MI, OH$238K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- TX$238K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, MI, OH, TX$238K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- AK, KS, OH, TX$235K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK$235K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$46M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Ohio?"?
47 wallets hold a position worth $18K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 47 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $6.4K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 687 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $10.0K on it, $323K lifetime profit over 4,482 markets (45% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Ohio?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $245K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
100% of the money on Yes and 100% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 3, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.