Who's betting on “Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Michigan?”?
Polkyo has not scored enough holders on both sides yet to say where the smart money sits. It fills in as people trade.
- Volume
- $269K traded all time
- Held now
- $13K by 50 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- - 46 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 100% 3 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $269K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
The smart money
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
Who holds it
50 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 49 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $2.1K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 687 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $10.0K on it, $323K lifetime profit over 4,482 markets (45% won).
- Holders
- 47
- Money on it
- $2.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 85%
- Holders
- 3
- Money on it
- $10K
- Holders' win rate
- 46%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.5K on it
- 1BreakTheBank88% won of 687 · whale$2.1K+$11M lifetime
- 20x6406…5e70no record yet$136
- 30x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-175993579546548% won of 6,384 · whale$71+$4.4M lifetime
- 4SnapElectionAvoider47% won of 2,469 · whale$68+$207K lifetime
- 5TimeTraveler88% won of 1,411 · whale$15+$156K lifetime
No$10K on it
- 1ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,482 · whale$10.0K+$323K lifetime
- 2iliabouchouev100% won of 6,044 · whale$100+$19K lifetime
- 3VictorLudorum36% won of 12,346 · noise$0+$165K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
24 more- None$3.1M vol.Yes 32%No 69%Smart money split
- IA, KS$2.1M vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money: Yes
- AK, IA, KS, MI, TX$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA$1.1M vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- IA, KS, MI$665K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- MI$378K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- IA, OH$343K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- OH$341K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- KS, MI$303K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- AK, IA, ME, MI, OH$297K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA$284K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, MI$280K vol.Yes 1%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- ME$279K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
- AK, IA, ME$268K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, ME, MI$263K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, ME$262K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, MI, OH$258K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- All 7$254K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- AK, IA, ME, MI, TX$245K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- AK, IA, MI, OH, TX$238K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- KS, ME, MI, OH$236K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- TX$235K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, OH, TX$233K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK$232K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money split
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$46M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Michigan?"?
50 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 49 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $2.1K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 687 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $10.0K on it, $323K lifetime profit over 4,482 markets (45% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Michigan?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $269K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 3, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.