Who's betting on “Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Ohio?”?
Smart money leans No: 100% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 12 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $394K traded all time
- Held now
- $19K by 49 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 88% 44 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 100% 4 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $394K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
The smart money
88% of the money on Yes and 100% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it was split.
Who holds it
49 wallets hold a position worth $19K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 48 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $7.5K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 687 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $9.7K on it, $323K lifetime profit over 4,482 markets (45% won).
- Holders
- 45
- Money on it
- $9.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 82%
- Holders
- 4
- Money on it
- $9.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 46%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$9.1K on it
- 1BreakTheBank88% won of 687 · whale$7.5K+$11M lifetime
- 2Krang55% won of 155$1.0K−$5.4K lifetime
- 30x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-175993579546548% won of 6,384 · whale$275+$4.4M lifetime
- 4SnapElectionAvoider47% won of 2,469 · whale$153+$207K lifetime
- 5balthazar53% won of 60,996 · whale$33+$1.2M lifetime
No$9.9K on it
- 1ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,482 · whale$9.7K+$323K lifetime
- 2iliabouchouev100% won of 6,044 · whale$100+$19K lifetime
- 3Elias.Thornwell70% won of 3,464 · whale$17+$84 lifetime
- 4VictorLudorum36% won of 12,346 · noise$0+$165K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
24 more- None$3.8M vol.Yes 32%No 69%Smart money split
- IA, KS$2.1M vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: Yes
- IA$1.5M vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: No
- AK, IA, KS, MI, TX$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, MI$679K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA$447K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- MI$433K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- OH$363K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- IA, OH$352K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS$350K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Too little scored money to compare
- KS, MI$340K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- ME$335K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
- IA, ME$328K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- ME, TX$319K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, MI$304K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, ME, MI, OH$303K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- KS, ME, OH, TX$301K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, ME, MI$297K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX$294K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Too little scored money to compare
- AK$287K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- AK, IA, ME$281K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, ME, MI, TX$274K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- KS, ME, MI, OH$272K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- TX$270K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$77M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$46M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Ohio?"?
49 wallets hold a position worth $19K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 48 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $7.5K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 687 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $9.7K on it, $323K lifetime profit over 4,482 markets (45% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Ohio?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $394K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
88% of the money on Yes and 100% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 3, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.