Who's betting on “Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Iowa and Texas?”?
Polkyo has not scored enough holders on both sides yet to say where the smart money sits. It fills in as people trade.
- Volume
- $430K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.8K by 58 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- - 56 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- - 2 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $430K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
The smart money
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
Who holds it
58 wallets hold a position worth $3.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 58 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $3.0K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 687 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is iliabouchouev, with $100 on it, $19K lifetime profit over 6,044 markets (100% won).
- Holders
- 56
- Money on it
- $3.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 81%
- Holders
- 2
- Money on it
- $118
- Holders' win rate
- 90%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.7K on it
- 1BreakTheBank88% won of 687 · whale$3.0K+$11M lifetime
- 2anciano50% won of 1,436 · whale$231+$40K lifetime
- 3HOG99336% won of 1,229 · noise$83+$100K lifetime
- 4sdhyky59% won of 1,180 · whale$57+$34K lifetime
- 50x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-175993579546548% won of 6,384 · whale$35+$4.4M lifetime
No$118 on it
- 1iliabouchouev100% won of 6,044 · whale$100+$19K lifetime
- 2GingerMcKenna37% won of 5,398 · noise$18+$42K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
24 more- None$5.7M vol.Yes 38%No 63%Smart money: No
- IA, KS$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- IA$1.9M vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: No
- AK, IA, KS, MI, TX$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, MI$766K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, ME$731K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA$715K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- IA, KS, ME$527K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- AK, KS, ME, OH$522K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- MI$518K vol.Yes 1%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- AK, IA, ME, MI, TX$516K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, ME$487K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- AK, ME, MI, OH$469K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, ME, MI, TX$463K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS$459K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, ME, MI, TX$457K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, ME, MI, TX$436K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, TX$430K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- KS, MI$428K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- OH$425K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- ME$423K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- ME, MI, TX$418K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, OH$415K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, ME, MI, OH, TX$415K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$77M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$46M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Iowa and Texas?"?
58 wallets hold a position worth $3.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 58 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $3.0K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 687 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is iliabouchouev, with $100 on it, $19K lifetime profit over 6,044 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Iowa and Texas?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $430K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 3, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.