Who's betting on “Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Texas?”?
Polkyo has not scored enough holders on both sides yet to say where the smart money sits. It fills in as people trade.
- Volume
- $363K traded all time
- Held now
- $13K by 50 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 100% 46 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- - 4 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $363K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
The smart money
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
Who holds it
50 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 50 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $10K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 687 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is Haradwaith, with $697 on it, $381K lifetime loss over 60,779 markets (50% won).
- Holders
- 46
- Money on it
- $12K
- Holders' win rate
- 81%
- Holders
- 4
- Money on it
- $729
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$12K on it
- 1BreakTheBank88% won of 687 · whale$10K+$11M lifetime
- 2SnapElectionAvoider47% won of 2,469 · whale$1.4K+$207K lifetime
- 30x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-175993579546548% won of 6,384 · whale$326+$4.4M lifetime
- 488111260% won of 1,171 · whale$100+$455K lifetime
- 5balthazar53% won of 60,996 · whale$97+$1.2M lifetime
No$729 on it
- 1Haradwaith50% won of 60,779$697−$381K lifetime
- 2Wuazz3% won of 450$15−$595 lifetime
- 3GingerMcKenna37% won of 5,398 · noise$12+$42K lifetime
- 40x49F20661% won of 1,006$5−$38K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
24 more- None$5.8M vol.Yes 37%No 64%Smart money: No
- IA, KS$2.5M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- IA$1.9M vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: No
- AK, IA, KS, MI, TX$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, MI$790K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, ME$757K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA$747K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- AK, IA, KS, MI$598K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, ME$552K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- AK, KS, ME, OH$551K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- MI$543K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- AK, KS, ME, MI, OH$536K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, ME, MI, TX$518K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, ME$512K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, ME, OH, TX$503K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, ME, MI, OH$503K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, ME, MI, TX$493K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS$489K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, ME, MI, TX$466K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, ME, MI, TX$464K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- ME, MI, TX$454K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- KS, MI$453K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, ME, MI$448K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- OH$448K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$77M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$46M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Texas?"?
50 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 50 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $10K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 687 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is Haradwaith, with $697 on it, $381K lifetime loss over 60,779 markets (50% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Texas?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $363K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 3, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.