Who's betting on “Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Ohio, and Texas?”?
Polkyo has not scored enough holders on both sides yet to say where the smart money sits. It fills in as people trade.
- Volume
- $347K traded all time
- Held now
- $7.8K by 69 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 98% 66 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- - 3 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $347K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
The smart money
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
Who holds it
69 wallets hold a position worth $7.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 69 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $5.1K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 719 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is 0x1fd0…c6a7, with $1.0K on it, $7.8K lifetime loss over 279 markets (81% won).
- Holders
- 66
- Money on it
- $6.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 81%
- Holders
- 3
- Money on it
- $1.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 80%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$6.2K on it
- 1BreakTheBank88% won of 719 · whale$5.1K+$11M lifetime
- 2SnapElectionAvoider47% won of 2,523 · whale$472+$232K lifetime
- 3anciano49% won of 1,557 · whale$155+$48K lifetime
- 4HOG99336% won of 1,255 · noise$129+$108K lifetime
- 50x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393843% won of 15,494 · whale$47+$156K lifetime
No$1.6K on it
- 10x1fd0…c6a781% won of 279$1.0K−$7.8K lifetime
- 2BunCaCham79% won of 601$554−$157K lifetime
- 3GingerMcKenna37% won of 5,495 · noise$0+$37K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
24 more- None$6.3M vol.Yes 32%No 69%Smart money: No
- IA, KS$2.6M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- AK, IA, KS, MI, TX$2.6M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA$2.5M vol.Yes 10%No 90%Smart money: No
- AK, IA$860K vol.Yes 4%No 97%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, MI$836K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, ME$786K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, MI, TX$719K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, ME, MI, TX$711K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- MI$699K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- AK, KS, ME, MI, TX$649K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, ME$641K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS, MI$629K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, MI, OH, TX$626K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS$616K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, ME$597K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- KS, MI, TX$597K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, ME, OH$563K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, ME, MI, OH$549K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, MI, OH, TX$539K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, OH$530K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- KS, MI$514K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS, TX$510K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK$507K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Too little scored money to compare
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$77M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$46M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Ohio, and Texas?"?
69 wallets hold a position worth $7.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 69 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $5.1K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 719 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is 0x1fd0…c6a7, with $1.0K on it, $7.8K lifetime loss over 279 markets (81% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Ohio, and Texas?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $347K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 3, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.