Who's betting on “Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Texas?”?
Polkyo has not scored enough holders on both sides yet to say where the smart money sits. It fills in as people trade.
- Volume
- $255K traded all time
- Held now
- $16K by 56 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 99% 53 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- - 1 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $255K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
The smart money
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
Who holds it
56 wallets hold a position worth $16K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 54 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $13K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 687 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is WhoseHouseRamsHouse, with $199 on it, $25K lifetime loss over 949 markets (96% won).
- Holders
- 55
- Money on it
- $16K
- Holders' win rate
- 81%
- Holders
- 1
- Money on it
- $199
- Holders' win rate
- 96%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$16K on it
- 1BreakTheBank88% won of 687 · whale$13K+$11M lifetime
- 2SnapElectionAvoider47% won of 2,469 · whale$1.2K+$207K lifetime
- 30x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-175993579546548% won of 6,384 · whale$426+$4.4M lifetime
- 40xb152…8315no record yet$260
- 5HOG99336% won of 1,229 · noise$223+$100K lifetime
No$199 on it
- 1WhoseHouseRamsHouse96% won of 949$199−$25K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)
24 more- None$5.8M vol.Yes 37%No 64%Smart money: No
- IA, KS$2.5M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- IA$1.9M vol.Yes 10%No 90%Smart money: No
- AK, IA, KS, MI, TX$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, MI$794K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA$784K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, ME$765K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, ME, MI, TX$661K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, ME, MI, TX$648K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS, MI$602K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, ME, OH$562K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, KS, ME$557K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- AK, KS, ME, MI, OH$549K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- MI$548K vol.Yes 1%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- IA, ME$519K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS$507K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, KS, ME, OH, TX$504K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, ME, MI, OH$503K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, ME, MI, TX$478K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- IA, ME, MI, TX$472K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, ME, MI$470K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- KS, MI$463K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, ME, OH$460K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- AK, IA, KS, ME$460K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$77M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$46M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Texas?"?
56 wallets hold a position worth $16K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 54 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $13K on it, $11M lifetime profit over 687 markets (88% won). The largest No holder is WhoseHouseRamsHouse, with $199 on it, $25K lifetime loss over 949 markets (96% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Texas?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $255K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 3, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.