Who's betting on “Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 79% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 63 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $11K traded all time
- Held now
- $2.3K by 54 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 16% 32 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 79% 22 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
16% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 63 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 62 points. A week ago, No by 58 points.
Who holds it
54 wallets hold a position worth $2.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 54 of them. The largest Yes holder is SammeK, with $92 on it, $2.5K lifetime loss over 5 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is bmtr, with $625 on it, $16K lifetime profit over 232 markets (63% won).
Sharp money
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $406 on No.
- Holders
- 32
- Money on it
- $185
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 22
- Money on it
- $2.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 2 · $406
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$185 on it
- 1SammeK60% won of 5$92−$2.5K lifetime
- 2macrosteaks64% won of 2,614$25−$8.2K lifetime
- 3thecaricature44% won of 717$14−$7.9K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,242 · noise$12+$255K lifetime
- 5thursdays62% won of 302 · whale$8+$10K lifetime
No$2.1K on it
- 1bmtr63% won of 232 · balanced$625+$16K lifetime
- 2tja73% won of 1,032 · sniper$396+$143K lifetime
- 3Lapinot73% won of 200 · balanced$340+$3.1K lifetime
- 4code.up91% won of 203$193−$115 lifetime
- 5alternate0180% won of 122$138−$6.9K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
6 more- OpenAI$43K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money split
- Meta$26K vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money: Yes
- DeepSeek$26K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- Moonshot$15K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Mistral$13K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Google$46K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$886K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$457K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?"?
54 wallets hold a position worth $2.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 54 of them. The largest Yes holder is SammeK, with $92 on it, $2.5K lifetime loss over 5 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is bmtr, with $625 on it, $16K lifetime profit over 232 markets (63% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
16% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 63 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 62 points. A week ago, No by 58 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.