Who's betting on “Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?”?
Tech · $408K volume · Ends December 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 50¢ and No at 51¢, a 51% implied chance of No. $408K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
51% of the money on Yes and 45% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 5 points. A week ago, Yes by 14 points.
659 wallets hold a position worth $108K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 653 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x84828283773829, with $8.2K on it, $18K lifetime loss over 346 markets (39% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $9.7K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $528 on Yes; the insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $4.2K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 51%
- Holders
- 524
- Money on it
- $86K
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 1 · $528
- Insider flags
- 1 · $4.2K
- Smart money share
- 45%
- Holders
- 135
- Money on it
- $22K
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x84828283773829 | $8.2K | -$18K | 39% of 346 |
| mewmew1 | $4.8K | -$12K | 64% of 1,103 |
| dfsahg1 | $4.0K | +$0 | - |
| 0xc6f8…8efb | $3.4K | -$9.1K | 25% of 12 |
| MEPPwhale | $3.2K | +$553K | 62% of 1,070 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | $9.7K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| BigMackyGwhale | $3.0K | +$74K | 71% of 221 |
| Leclerc04balanced | $2.3K | +$2.2K | 51% of 1,058 |
| kezgodbalanced | $905 | +$896 | 78% of 36 |
| lissartter | $770 | -$270K | 56% of 2,742 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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- Amazon$147K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Microsoft$137K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- ByteDance$136K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Baidu$122K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Meituan$108K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Which company has best AI model end of 2026? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?"?
659 wallets hold a position worth $108K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 653 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x84828283773829, with $8.2K on it, $18K lifetime loss over 346 markets (39% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $9.7K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 50¢ and No at 51¢, a 51% implied chance of No. $408K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
51% of the money on Yes and 45% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 5 points. A week ago, Yes by 14 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on Yes ($4.2K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.