Who's betting on “Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?”?
Tech · $192K volume · Ends December 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $192K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
71% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points. A week ago, No by 26 points.
165 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 165 of them. The largest Yes holder is JungPung, with $232 on it, $3.0K lifetime profit over 187 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is JanusApprentice, with $431 on it, $16K lifetime profit over 91 markets (65% won).
- Smart money share
- 71%
- Holders
- 127
- Money on it
- $1.5K
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 88%
- Holders
- 38
- Money on it
- $2.0K
- Holders' winrate
- 69%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| JungPungbalanced | $232 | +$3.0K | 64% of 187 |
| 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938noise | $114 | +$105K | 38% of 6,018 |
| Thisismkc | $98 | -$718 | 100% of 9 |
| cowcatwhale | $76 | +$45K | 68% of 1,058 |
| a5DYXQMGEEbalanced | $64 | +$473 | 55% of 204 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| JanusApprenticebalanced | $431 | +$16K | 65% of 91 |
| akum4noise | $278 | +$1.8K | 38% of 55 |
| Mustafalafelwhale | $230 | +$46K | 80% of 271 |
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $151 | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,940 |
| qianduoduoduo | $122 | -$1.6K | 90% of 41 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
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- ByteDance$136K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Baidu$122K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Meituan$108K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Which company has best AI model end of 2026? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?"?
165 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 165 of them. The largest Yes holder is JungPung, with $232 on it, $3.0K lifetime profit over 187 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is JanusApprentice, with $431 on it, $16K lifetime profit over 91 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $192K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
71% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points. A week ago, No by 26 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.