Who's betting on “Human moon landing in 2026?”?
Tech · $2.0M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $2.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
20% of the money on Yes and 69% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 49 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 49 points. A week ago, No by 50 points.
540 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 537 of them. The largest Yes holder is moon-k58-lad, with $51 on it, $147K lifetime loss over 2,109 markets (74% won). The largest No holder is 0x8931…a90c, with $3.5K on it, $29K lifetime profit over 609 markets (95% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $0 on No.
- Smart money share
- 20%
- Holders
- 202
- Money on it
- $400
- Holders' winrate
- 53%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 69%
- Holders
- 338
- Money on it
- $20K
- Holders' winrate
- 77%
- Snipers
- 1 · $0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| moon-k58-lad | $51 | -$147K | 74% of 2,109 |
| 0xbb88…e32f | $49 | -$35 | - |
| 9supreme | $23 | -$534 | 40% of 77 |
| BigMx031 | $14 | +$0 | - |
| spartatradingwhale | $13 | +$27K | 45% of 1,168 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8931…a90cwhale | $3.5K | +$29K | 95% of 609 |
| gagagagagagabalanced | $2.2K | +$1.5K | 73% of 40 |
| ALevinson | $1.9K | -$29K | 80% of 200 |
| 64MGX75VLQgrinder | $980 | +$7.8K | 98% of 262 |
| 0xCE92cb6392091c79404c884426b895EeF99D6E4b-1747566688844 | $588 | +$80K | 100% of 10 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$401K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$394K vol.Yes 56%No 45%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Human moon landing in 2026?"?
540 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 537 of them. The largest Yes holder is moon-k58-lad, with $51 on it, $147K lifetime loss over 2,109 markets (74% won). The largest No holder is 0x8931…a90c, with $3.5K on it, $29K lifetime profit over 609 markets (95% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Human moon landing in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $2.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
20% of the money on Yes and 69% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 49 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 49 points. A week ago, No by 50 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.