Who's betting on “Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?”?
Tech · $430K volume · Ends October 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $430K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
47% of the money on Yes and 47% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 8 points. A week ago, Yes by 8 points.
362 wallets hold a position worth $6.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 355 of them. The largest Yes holder is randombyte, with $55 on it, $3.4K lifetime loss over 200 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is WhoseHouseRamsHouse, with $2.0K on it, $28K lifetime loss over 895 markets (96% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1 on No.
- Smart money share
- 47% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 257
- Money on it
- $1.2K
- Holders' winrate
- 52%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 47% ▲ 7 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 105
- Money on it
- $5.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 89%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| randombyte | $55 | -$3.4K | 68% of 200 |
| rewardbotswhale | $51 | +$75K | 57% of 344 |
| Wojteknoise | $47 | +$54K | 15% of 225 |
| bmtrbalanced | $44 | +$16K | 62% of 231 |
| Ravid Jones | $37 | -$936 | 44% of 16 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse | $2.0K | -$28K | 96% of 895 |
| 0x1fd0…c6a7 | $499 | -$7.9K | 80% of 267 |
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $399 | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,940 |
| Diiodogrinder | $326 | +$72 | 90% of 71 |
| haohaozadadbalanced | $271 | +$37 | 91% of 45 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Google$764K vol.Yes 91%No 9%Smart money: Yes
- Anthropic$735K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- Meta$401K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- SpaceXAI$339K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Alibaba$188K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Moonshot$184K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- DeepSeek$143K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Z.ai$109K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Xiaomi$35K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- ByteDance$24K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Mistral$20K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Amazon$15K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Baidu$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Which company has the best AI model end of October? →
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$888K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$408K vol.Yes 50%No 51%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$394K vol.Yes 56%No 45%Smart money: Yes
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$362K vol.Yes 41%No 60%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?$356K vol.Yes 16%No 84%Smart money split
- Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?$355K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?"?
362 wallets hold a position worth $6.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 355 of them. The largest Yes holder is randombyte, with $55 on it, $3.4K lifetime loss over 200 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is WhoseHouseRamsHouse, with $2.0K on it, $28K lifetime loss over 895 markets (96% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $430K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
47% of the money on Yes and 47% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 8 points. A week ago, Yes by 8 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.