Who's betting on “Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?”?
Tech · $735K volume · Ends October 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $735K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
83% of the money on Yes and 57% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 27 points. A week ago, Yes by 27 points.
911 wallets hold a position worth $145K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 888 of them. The largest Yes holder is Popopolly, with $9.4K on it, $55K lifetime profit over 13 markets (92% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $35K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $135 on Yes; 2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $285 on No.
- Smart money share
- 83%
- Holders
- 735
- Money on it
- $27K
- Holders' winrate
- 75%
- Snipers
- 2 · $135
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 57%
- Holders
- 176
- Money on it
- $118K
- Holders' winrate
- 67%
- Snipers
- 2 · $285
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Popopolly | $9.4K | +$55K | 92% of 13 |
| klinxiowl | $4.6K | +$30K | 80% of 10 |
| eCashwhale | $820 | +$273K | 70% of 652 |
| Pumpnoise | $736 | +$50K | 29% of 232 |
| lisrabalanced | $713 | +$18K | 94% of 388 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | $35K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| eightpenguinswhale | $15K | +$301K | 72% of 520 |
| BigMackyGwhale | $8.8K | +$74K | 71% of 221 |
| KiruaTradingwhale | $7.8K | +$22K | 65% of 446 |
| PermanentUnderclass | $5.4K | +$15K | 100% of 5 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Google$764K vol.Yes 91%No 9%Smart money: Yes
- OpenAI$430K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- Meta$401K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- SpaceXAI$339K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Alibaba$188K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Moonshot$184K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- DeepSeek$143K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Z.ai$109K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Xiaomi$35K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- ByteDance$24K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Mistral$20K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Amazon$15K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Baidu$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Which company has the best AI model end of October? →
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$888K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$408K vol.Yes 50%No 51%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$394K vol.Yes 56%No 45%Smart money: Yes
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$362K vol.Yes 41%No 60%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?$356K vol.Yes 16%No 84%Smart money split
- Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?$355K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?"?
911 wallets hold a position worth $145K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 888 of them. The largest Yes holder is Popopolly, with $9.4K on it, $55K lifetime profit over 13 markets (92% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $35K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $735K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
83% of the money on Yes and 57% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 27 points. A week ago, Yes by 27 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.