Who's betting on “FDA approves Retatrutide this year?”?
Tech · $596K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $596K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
25% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 53 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 53 points. A week ago, No by 43 points.
178 wallets hold a position worth $9.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 178 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x9642bD30D320CaD7878F642566f9F5B91Fc9d2aB-1746989497209, with $35 on it, $14K lifetime loss over 164 markets (13% won). The largest No holder is Michael-The-Taxiarch, with $1.7K on it, $24K lifetime profit over 102 markets (63% won).
- Smart money share
- 25%
- Holders
- 95
- Money on it
- $166
- Holders' winrate
- 45%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 78%
- Holders
- 83
- Money on it
- $9.1K
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x9642bD30D320CaD7878F642566f9F5B91Fc9d2aB-1746989497209 | $35 | -$14K | 13% of 164 |
| 0x72727f158295dCA92Da2e71F406399D1CB351A25-1783215702812 | $13 | -$66 | 38% of 42 |
| 0x5708f52855b54f6C3Cc619cf967E7F7501dB52e5-1725949028178 | $13 | -$113 | 60% of 5 |
| AurelusM | $11 | -$37K | 50% of 200 |
| 0xDe289Ba666E7bb7c74C65aE0a03c9f78d91C2115-1766943170171noise | $9 | +$788 | 50% of 46 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael-The-Taxiarchbalanced | $1.7K | +$24K | 63% of 102 |
| gandalfwhale | $1.4K | +$2.7K | 51% of 200 |
| FrenchToastDoge69 | $1.0K | +$28 | 100% of 3 |
| Optimus-whale | $558 | +$120K | 56% of 314 |
| .ethguywhale | $542 | +$45K | 58% of 226 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "FDA approves Retatrutide this year?"?
178 wallets hold a position worth $9.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 178 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x9642bD30D320CaD7878F642566f9F5B91Fc9d2aB-1746989497209, with $35 on it, $14K lifetime loss over 164 markets (13% won). The largest No holder is Michael-The-Taxiarch, with $1.7K on it, $24K lifetime profit over 102 markets (63% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "FDA approves Retatrutide this year?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $596K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
25% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 53 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 53 points. A week ago, No by 43 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.