Who's betting on “Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?”?
Tech · $184K volume · Ends October 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $184K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
63% of the money on Yes and 0% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 63 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 60 points. A week ago, Yes by 96 points.
68 wallets hold a position worth $867 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 68 of them. The largest Yes holder is quantgamer, with $81 on it, $265 lifetime loss over 83 markets (28% won). The largest No holder is 0x1fd0…c6a7, with $501 on it, $7.9K lifetime loss over 267 markets (80% won).
- Smart money share
- 63%
- Holders
- 63
- Money on it
- $324
- Holders' winrate
- 38%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 0% ▼ 4 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 5
- Money on it
- $543
- Holders' winrate
- 80%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| quantgamer | $81 | -$265 | 28% of 83 |
| 0x652bFf901f401Fdhsk342kdjfnfk029abks13balanced | $49 | +$11K | 74% of 296 |
| Wojteknoise | $38 | +$54K | 15% of 225 |
| donthackmenoise | $21 | +$907K | 29% of 69,634 |
| cigarettes | $21 | -$4.2K | 46% of 42,466 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x1fd0…c6a7 | $501 | -$7.9K | 80% of 267 |
| VTUII | $28 | -$8 | 81% of 43 |
| krauseveronica | $8 | -$15 | 85% of 78 |
| 154f | $5 | -$1.6K | 84% of 80 |
| 0xbafd…4898 | $1 | -$3.0K | 51% of 361 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Google$765K vol.Yes 90%No 10%Smart money: Yes
- Anthropic$735K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- OpenAI$430K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- Meta$401K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- SpaceXAI$339K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Alibaba$188K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- DeepSeek$143K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Z.ai$109K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Xiaomi$35K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- ByteDance$24K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Mistral$20K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Amazon$15K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Baidu$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Which company has the best AI model end of October? →
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$888K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$408K vol.Yes 50%No 51%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$396K vol.Yes 56%No 45%Smart money: Yes
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$362K vol.Yes 41%No 60%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?$356K vol.Yes 16%No 84%Smart money split
- Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?$355K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?"?
68 wallets hold a position worth $867 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 68 of them. The largest Yes holder is quantgamer, with $81 on it, $265 lifetime loss over 83 markets (28% won). The largest No holder is 0x1fd0…c6a7, with $501 on it, $7.9K lifetime loss over 267 markets (80% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $184K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
63% of the money on Yes and 0% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 63 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 60 points. A week ago, Yes by 96 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.