Who's betting on “Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?”?
Tech · $235K volume · Ends December 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $235K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
49% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 16 points. A week ago, No by 26 points.
311 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 310 of them. The largest Yes holder is Hyperlong, with $867 on it, $75K lifetime loss over 1,268 markets (52% won). The largest No holder is WhoseHouseRamsHouse, with $521 on it, $28K lifetime loss over 895 markets (96% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $29 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 49%
- Holders
- 251
- Money on it
- $7.8K
- Holders' winrate
- 55%
- Snipers
- 1 · $29
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 65%
- Holders
- 60
- Money on it
- $3.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 73%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hyperlong | $867 | -$75K | 52% of 1,268 |
| eNakeVets | $813 | -$63K | 53% of 1,027 |
| cowcatwhale | $573 | +$45K | 68% of 1,058 |
| 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938noise | $572 | +$105K | 38% of 6,018 |
| crop? | $457 | -$260 | 72% of 218 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse | $521 | -$28K | 96% of 895 |
| tjawhale | $424 | +$138K | 73% of 1,032 |
| rponticigrinder | $330 | +$3.6K | 94% of 327 |
| Contentious-Dinnerdatewhale | $222 | +$104K | 67% of 1,064 |
| akum4noise | $207 | +$1.8K | 38% of 55 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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- Baidu$122K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Meituan$108K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Which company has best AI model end of 2026? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?"?
311 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 310 of them. The largest Yes holder is Hyperlong, with $867 on it, $75K lifetime loss over 1,268 markets (52% won). The largest No holder is WhoseHouseRamsHouse, with $521 on it, $28K lifetime loss over 895 markets (96% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $235K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
49% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 16 points. A week ago, No by 26 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.