Who's betting on “Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?”?
Tech · $175K volume · Ends December 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $175K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
68% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 26 points. A week ago, No by 31 points.
103 wallets hold a position worth $1.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 103 of them. The largest Yes holder is BornAgain26, with $159 on it, $6.0K lifetime loss over 224 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is 393dC, with $123 on it, $2 lifetime profit over 5 markets (100% won).
- Smart money share
- 68%
- Holders
- 80
- Money on it
- $853
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 94%
- Holders
- 23
- Money on it
- $692
- Holders' winrate
- 74%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| BornAgain26 | $159 | -$6.0K | 80% of 224 |
| OnYesYesnoise | $158 | +$3.5K | 55% of 31 |
| Mustafalafelwhale | $113 | +$46K | 80% of 271 |
| 0x67918B45D58ada7de1eea9e3b483d8Ea5F9d0434-1783201601509 | $58 | +$10 | 100% of 2 |
| 0xeE8aef5aDC04FFb8Cb3417233389473246BDf0b0-1773254929104 | $34 | -$3.2K | 46% of 106 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 393dC | $123 | +$2 | 100% of 5 |
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $96 | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,940 |
| GingerMcKennanoise | $89 | +$39K | 35% of 4,367 |
| jsch34.20balanced | $70 | +$33 | 92% of 37 |
| 1213FDC7222 | $55 | +$14 | 100% of 6 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic$408K vol.Yes 50%No 51%Smart money: Yes
- Google$362K vol.Yes 41%No 60%Smart money: Yes
- OpenAI$235K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Mistral$214K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Meta$211K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- xAI$192K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Moonshot$186K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- DeepSeek$172K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Z.ai$155K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Amazon$147K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Microsoft$137K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- ByteDance$136K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Baidu$122K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Meituan$108K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Which company has best AI model end of 2026? →
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$888K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$765K vol.Yes 91%No 9%Smart money: Yes
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$735K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$430K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$401K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$396K vol.Yes 56%No 45%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?"?
103 wallets hold a position worth $1.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 103 of them. The largest Yes holder is BornAgain26, with $159 on it, $6.0K lifetime loss over 224 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is 393dC, with $123 on it, $2 lifetime profit over 5 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $175K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
68% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 26 points. A week ago, No by 31 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.