Who's betting on “Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 18 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $26K traded all time
- Held now
- $6.3K by 55 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 87% 29 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 69% 26 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $26K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
87% of the money on Yes and 69% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 18 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 26 points. A week ago, Yes by 12 points.
Who holds it
55 wallets hold a position worth $6.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 55 of them. The largest Yes holder is seal7, with $221 on it, $132K lifetime profit over 846 markets (59% won). The largest No holder is macrosteaks, with $1.3K on it, $8.2K lifetime loss over 2,614 markets (64% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $511 on No.
- Holders
- 29
- Money on it
- $473
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 26
- Money on it
- $5.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 72%
- Snipers
- 1 · $511
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$473 on it
- 1seal759% won of 846 · whale$221+$132K lifetime
- 2jozeslemsek61% won of 410 · whale$74+$2.6K lifetime
- 3thursdays62% won of 302 · whale$60+$10K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,242 · noise$30+$255K lifetime
- 5EdgePunta62% won of 107$26−$3.9K lifetime
No$5.8K on it
- 1macrosteaks64% won of 2,614$1.3K−$8.2K lifetime
- 2thoodr96% won of 830 · whale$925+$100K lifetime
- 3ourdemocracy279% won of 550 · whale$925+$6.6K lifetime
- 4molodoyy50% won of 643 · whale$671+$46K lifetime
- 5xcaiox84% won of 254 · sniper$511+$13K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
6 more- OpenAI$43K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money split
- DeepSeek$26K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- Moonshot$15K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Mistral$13K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- xAI$11K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- Google$46K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$886K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$457K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?"?
55 wallets hold a position worth $6.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 55 of them. The largest Yes holder is seal7, with $221 on it, $132K lifetime profit over 846 markets (59% won). The largest No holder is macrosteaks, with $1.3K on it, $8.2K lifetime loss over 2,614 markets (64% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $26K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
87% of the money on Yes and 69% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 18 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 26 points. A week ago, Yes by 12 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.