Who's betting on “Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 90% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 28 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $15K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.9K by 56 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 62% 38 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 90% 18 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
62% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 28 points. A week ago, No by 36 points.
Who holds it
56 wallets hold a position worth $4.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 56 of them. The largest Yes holder is aenews2, with $27 on it, $2.4M lifetime profit over 1,134 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is thoodr, with $2.7K on it, $100K lifetime profit over 830 markets (96% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $97 on No.
- Holders
- 38
- Money on it
- $138
- Holders' win rate
- 47%
- Holders
- 18
- Money on it
- $4.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 87%
- Snipers
- 1 · $97
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$138 on it
- 1aenews273% won of 1,134 · whale$27+$2.4M lifetime
- 2thursdays62% won of 302 · whale$25+$10K lifetime
- 3Oklmntrader13% won of 577$22−$173K lifetime
- 4thecaricature44% won of 717$15−$7.9K lifetime
- 5Wojtek15% won of 229 · noise$11+$55K lifetime
No$4.8K on it
- 1thoodr96% won of 830 · whale$2.7K+$100K lifetime
- 2libratus183% won of 208 · whale$1.3K+$60K lifetime
- 3onthewave64% won of 207$271−$5.4K lifetime
- 4Midas1467% won of 220$194−$3.0K lifetime
- 5parameter165% won of 400 · balanced$151+$1.1K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
6 more- OpenAI$43K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money split
- Meta$26K vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money: Yes
- DeepSeek$26K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- Mistral$13K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- xAI$11K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- Google$46K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$886K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$457K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?"?
56 wallets hold a position worth $4.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 56 of them. The largest Yes holder is aenews2, with $27 on it, $2.4M lifetime profit over 1,134 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is thoodr, with $2.7K on it, $100K lifetime profit over 830 markets (96% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
62% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 28 points. A week ago, No by 36 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.