Who's betting on “Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 50% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 11 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $26K traded all time
- Held now
- $2.3K by 44 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 50% 23 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 39% 21 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $26K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
50% of the money on Yes and 39% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.
Who holds it
44 wallets hold a position worth $2.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 44 of them. The largest Yes holder is LornaPredicts, with $25 on it, $27K lifetime profit over 15,840 markets (28% won). The largest No holder is macrosteaks, with $1.1K on it, $7.8K lifetime loss over 2,609 markets (64% won).
Sharp money
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $473 on No.
- Holders
- 23
- Money on it
- $127
- Holders' win rate
- 40%
- Holders
- 21
- Money on it
- $2.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
- Snipers
- 2 · $473
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$127 on it
- 1LornaPredicts28% won of 15,840 · noise$25+$27K lifetime
- 2Dr.PNL30% won of 15,261$21−$485K lifetime
- 3spartatrading44% won of 1,291 · whale$20+$27K lifetime
- 4rocky4201351% won of 983$17−$12K lifetime
- 5Numitus199449% won of 15,720$9−$28K lifetime
No$2.2K on it
- 1macrosteaks64% won of 2,609$1.1K−$7.8K lifetime
- 2tja73% won of 1,032 · sniper$255+$143K lifetime
- 3xcaiox84% won of 254 · sniper$218+$13K lifetime
- 4Midas1467% won of 220$189−$3.0K lifetime
- 5wasabeej52% won of 584 · balanced$151+$6.0K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
6 more- OpenAI$43K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money split
- Meta$26K vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money: Yes
- Moonshot$15K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Mistral$13K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- xAI$11K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- Google$46K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?"?
44 wallets hold a position worth $2.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 44 of them. The largest Yes holder is LornaPredicts, with $25 on it, $27K lifetime profit over 15,840 markets (28% won). The largest No holder is macrosteaks, with $1.1K on it, $7.8K lifetime loss over 2,609 markets (64% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $26K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
50% of the money on Yes and 39% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.